Taylor Fritz had a disappointing US Open swing as the world No. 4 and American No. 1, failing to reach a title match and adding to the frustration by being unable to help his team win a home Davis Cup tie against the Czech Republic. Things looked bleak for the American, but he responded brilliantly with arguably the best week of his career at last weekend’s Laver Cup, defeating world No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz and world No. 3 Alexander Zverev to help Team World claim the title.
This pattern has defined Fritz’s 2025 season so far, as stretches of poor form raise questions about his credibility as the world No. 4, only for him to respond with a standout result and reaffirm his quality. That said, he still needs to significantly improve his consistency to solidify this ranking long-term. With the remainder of the season featuring more events in conditions similar to those he faced at last week’s Laver Cup, he could have a real opportunity to finish the year strongly.
Fritz’s previous experiences in Tokyo have been mixed. He captured the title in 2022, navigating several tightly contested three-set matches, but his other campaigns ended early, with some being disastrous. Notably, during his title defense in 2023, he squandered a huge lead against Shintaro Mochizuki in the second round, despite having delivered a bagel in the first set.
Gabriel Diallo reached the peak of his career during the grass-court swing midway through the season, capturing his maiden ATP title in ’s-Hertogenbosch and reaching a career-high ranking of No. 33. Although he has struggled to maintain that momentum in the following months, he has continued to perform well, regularly picking up wins on the tour.
The Canadian has cleared the first-round hurdle in each of his last ten tournaments, with his most recent opening-round loss coming at the Rome Masters in May, where he was defeated by American Marcos Giron. Americans have generally given him trouble this year, as he holds a 1–7 record against them in 2025, including two losses to Taylor Fritz.
Head-to-head: Taylor Fritz leads 2-0. Fritz received a major boost in confidence from his recent win over Carlos Alcaraz, a victory that could propel his career to the next level. With that momentum, he is the clear favorite to go deep this week. His main challenge will be quickly recovering from the Laver Cup and adapting to Asian conditions, a transition that has proven difficult for many Laver Cup participants, and one Fritz has regularly struggled with in the past.