Casper Ruud v Stan Wawrinka (23/10/2025)

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Casper Ruud received a major boost to his morale and confidence with his title run in Stockholm last week, where his performance in the final was particularly impressive. That confidence carried over into his first-round match at ATP Basel, where he dominated Quentin Halys for a routine 6-1, 7-6 victory.

The clay-court season, which usually suits him, has left Ruud stranded this year, but indoor hard courts have unexpectedly come to his rescue, keeping his slim Turin hopes alive. His title run in Stockholm has lifted him to No. 11 in the Race to Turin, and a continuation of this form in Basel and the Paris Masters could potentially secure him an unlikely ticket to the ATP Finals, a tournament he has competed in over each of the past three seasons.

In previous years, if Ruud had been asked to deliver on indoor hard courts to secure a Turin spot, he might not have fancied his chances. However, the situation is different now, as he is currently enjoying the most successful indoor season of his career in 2025. He has won an impressive 12 of 13 matches played on this surface over the past ten months, reaching the final in both indoor ATP events he entered, finishing as runner-up in Dallas, and capturing the title in Stockholm.

Stan Wawrinka has been admirable in the way he continues to work hard and keep his passion burning at this stage of his career, even after enduring many tough and demoralizing losses that might have forced other players to give up. Any small positive would provide him with extra strength and motivation to keep going, and he gained one such boost in Basel this week, registering his first main-draw win in a tour-level hard-court event this year by defeating Miomir Kecmanovic.

Six times the former Swiss No. 1 has reached the quarterfinals of his home event in Basel, and to make it a seventh, he will need to pull off a top-20 victory, something he has not achieved yet in 2025. His most recent top-20 success came last year during the European indoor swing in Stockholm, where he notably upset Andrey Rublev, a fellow Turin aspirant.

Head-to-head: Stan Wawrinka leads 1-0. Wawrinka has the tools to challenge Casper Ruud in these conditions and remain competitive as long as his body holds up. However, he has repeatedly shown that his physical level drops significantly as matches progress, a vulnerability that his previous opponent, Miomir Kecmanovic, failed to fully exploit. That weakness is unlikely to go unpunished by the in-form Casper Ruud.

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