The battle to avoid automatic relegation from UEFA Nations League (UNL) Group A3 has gone down to the wire, with Croatia needing only to avoid defeat against the Czech Republic to secure third place.
Match News and Current Form
Croatia won't look back fondly on this UNL campaign, having conceded a group-high 16 goals across the opening five matchdays - a total inflated by a 7-0 defeat to England last month. Their solitary victory (L4) nevertheless leaves them in an advantageous position to dodge relegation, although that will likely have to be done through a play-off as they’re currently one of the two lowest-ranked sides in line to finish third. Confidence will likely be high despite their four group-stage defeats this season, given that their last nine international losses have all come against countries currently ranked in FIFA’s top ten, while their home form is similarly encouraging having won eight of their last 11 competitive encounters as hosts (D1, L2).
Following their 2-0 defeat to Spain, the Czech Republic have now lost all five of their UNL games this season, scoring just twice, leaving them needing to overhaul third-placed Croatia to avoid automatic relegation and an immediate return to League B. It is certainly not the start to his new job that manager Santi Denia would have hoped for, but his task has been severely complicated by poor discipline, with his side receiving a red card in three of their last four matches. The start of the Czech Republic’s poor run predates Denia’s time in charge though, as they have lost seven of their last eight games (D1), while five of their last six defeats have been by a 2+ goal margin.
Head-to-Head History
Croatia haven't lost any of the previous seven H2Hs (W4, D3), a run which includes a 2-1 victory in September’s reverse fixture. Six of those seven outings have seen both teams score though.
Hot Stats and Streaks
Croatia won five of their last seven competitive home matches by 2+ goals.
Croatia’s last seven internationals each produced over 2.5 goals.
The Czech Republic failed to score before half-time in their last six games.
The Czech Republic have not kept a clean sheet in their last 12 matches.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
After equalising against England, Croatia midfielder Petar Sučić’s last seven strikes for club or country have all come in games featuring at least three goals. Czech talent Ryan Naderi has made it 1-0 in nine of his last ten scoring appearances, but he is still awaiting his first international goal.
Croatia seemingly came through their match against England unscathed injury-wise, while the Czech Republic will be without captain Ladislav Krejčí following his red card against Spain - his second sending-off of the campaign.
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Betting Analysis
Croatia’s dominant head-to-head record is hard to ignore, making a home win a very appealing play here.
Author: Tomáš Vlasák